Let’s take a look at some of the data to emerge during the novel coronavirus pandemic:

Many people have died due to COVID 19. More than 108,000 in the US alone at the time of this writing. Keep in mind that this is not the most deadly virus the modern world has seen, yet it has received the most aggressive government action by far. How could this be? While we’ve had access to a 24 hour news cycle for a little while now, an even more addictive news source is available: our cell phones. This is the first pandemic during the social media age, where constantly updated “news” is made available by simply pressing a button on our phones.

When looking at the US economy, the numbers don’t look great. This is the deepest recession since the Great Depression, yet we may already be climbing out of this one. A popular measurement used when judging the state of the economy is unemployment numbers. Continuing unemployment claims have decreased to 21 million from the previous level of just under 24 million. Typically, the end of a recession can be placed between the peak in new unemployment claims and the peak in continuing claims. This places that point somewhere between mid March and mid May. While it is the recent deepest, it looks to be the shortest as well.

40 million total unemployment claims is often repeated in the news. However, many of these claims are estimated to be off since many have started to be called back to work. Keep in mind, the CARES act made more people eligible to apply for unemployment than normal (i.e. some business owners, self-employed, independent contractors). The real number looks to be closer to 30 million (which is still amazingly high).

Airline travel is down substantially from a year ago. However, the TSA recently reported numbers that show airline travel is up 303% from April 14 (the lowest amount of airline travel year-to-date) to about 350,000 flyers. After 9/11, it took less than 3 years for the amount of travelers to return to pre-9/11 levels. I think we’ll see a return to pre-COVID levels in less than a year, barring any future government-mandated air travel restrictions.

The current projected budget deficit may fall in the neighborhood of $4 trillion due to the significant stimulus packages they will end up rolling out this year. Keep in mind that this actually amounts to 20% of projected GDP this year. Also, all new issued debt will be generating an interest payment of .25%, versus an average of 2.4%. This is definitely manageable on a scale as large as the US economy.

No matter where you look, scary things are being reported. But keep in mind, the economy will bounce back. The only unknown is how quickly that will happen. The important thing to keep in mind is to have a plan and actually stick to it. Be prepared to adjust if needed, and try to keep your emotions out of those decisions. At Beyond Financial Planning, we take a comprehensive approach to financial planning where we take the time to understand your individual circumstances so that we can assist you in your planning. Start planning smart, and stop being the government’s personal piggy bank.